Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 9.080385 10.431687 11.887487 13.569078 15.454412 17.499383 19.881703
2025-12-14 6.995585 8.800955 10.898787 13.502778 16.633410 20.260328 24.763404
2025-12-21 5.636911 7.537051 9.858662 12.878863 16.676049 21.261695 27.184790
2025-12-28 5.016936 7.071947 9.693569 13.242720 17.875590 23.666370 31.392742
2026-01-04 4.498621 6.644024 9.486536 13.470015 18.839956 25.751136 35.227768
2026-01-11 3.962716 6.119579 9.081953 13.370627 19.328109 27.205397 38.280726
2026-01-18 3.507876 5.650156 8.693470 13.234478 19.719237 28.507926 41.148639
2026-01-25 3.163677 5.300439 8.432639 13.238258 20.276468 30.031222 44.351808
2026-02-01 2.895613 5.034391 8.262882 13.345886 20.965542 31.744655 47.866612
2026-02-08 2.615174 4.717570 7.984645 13.260614 21.350998 33.025414 50.802784
2026-02-15 2.362098 4.417504 7.703070 13.140525 21.661886 34.192958 53.602408
2026-02-22 2.180507 4.217421 7.559909 13.217891 22.263181 35.795664 57.081908
2026-03-01 2.067013 4.127698 7.593999 13.587269 23.348249 38.186651 61.862024
2026-03-08 1.864681 3.859499 7.309035 13.415083 23.565335 39.267968 64.714682
2026-03-15 1.617653 3.481432 6.802268 12.830797 23.073526 39.216391 65.809565
2026-03-22 1.542782 3.421048 6.844878 13.180292 24.122801 41.610028 70.772489
2026-03-29 1.456695 3.329459 6.822650 13.411417 24.979560 43.723606 75.362612
2026-04-05 1.332946 3.149095 6.622415 13.310720 25.262302 44.915791 78.520614
2026-04-12 1.216891 2.971803 6.412663 13.175698 25.472314 45.988107 81.512090
2026-04-19 1.128206 2.842826 6.284289 13.179252 25.919400 47.461706 85.198641
2026-04-26 1.058709 2.748159 6.214899 13.286538 26.551427 49.262298 89.476974
2026-05-03 0.974857 2.612041 6.051353 13.201570 26.827858 50.463806 92.789339
2026-05-10 0.895046 2.476144 5.876822 13.081957 27.030347 51.538989 95.915652